WTPN21 PHNC 291930

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E)//

RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN

160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6N 123.0W TO 16.8N 128.2W

WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY

ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. SYNOPTIC

DATA AT 291800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED

NEAR 11.6N 123.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02

KNOTS.



2. REMARKS:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) PREVIOUSELY LOCATED NEAR 11.5N

122.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 123.0W, APPROXIMATELY 1308 NM SOUTHWEST

OF SAN DIEGO.

ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH

DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) .

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR

DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), GOOD POLEWARD

OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE 95E MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH

STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE

POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY

301930Z.

//

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