WTPN21 PHNC 302000

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E)//

RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN

130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6N 105.9W TO 13.9N 107.0W

WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY

ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT

IMAGERY AT 301800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED

NEAR 12.0N 106.0W. THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY.

2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N

106.0W, APPROXIMATELY 460NM SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. MULTISPECTRAL

SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE SWATH OF PERSISTENT DEEP

CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ASSESSED CENTER. RECENT ASCAT

WINDSPEED DATA REVEALS A POORLY CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITH

ELEVATED 30 KT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS

INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,

AND A FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (29-30C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC

AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND GRADUAL

INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE

WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS

ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY

312000Z.//

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