WTPN22 PGTW 261800

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//

REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PERAL HARBOR HI/260651ZJUL2026//

AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//

RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN

120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4N 178.3W TO 13.8N 174.3E

WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY

ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT

IMAGERY AT 261200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED

NEAR 12.7N 179.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92C), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED

NEAR 12.7N 177.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 179.8E, APPROXIMATELY

597NM NORTHEAST OF MAJURO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE

IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN AREA OF CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE

NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES, WITH CURVED FLARING CONVECTIVE BANDS

TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE

STRONGEST WINDS ARE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH

RELATIVELY WEAKER WINDS TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15

KNOTS OR LESS), STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (28-29C)

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT 92C CONTINUING TO

CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING A

GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. CURRENT WIND SPEEDS ARE LISTED AT 25 KNOTS

WITH THE SYSTEM BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT

FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE

ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED

TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT

TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS

SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PHNC 260700).

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY

271800Z.//

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