WTPN31 PGTW 301500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 030//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 030

   DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 25W

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   301200Z --- NEAR 31.8N 138.8E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

   REPEAT POSIT: 31.8N 138.8E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   010000Z --- 33.7N 141.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   EXTRATROPICAL

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 22 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   011200Z --- 36.5N 145.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   EXTRATROPICAL

    ---

REMARKS:

301500Z POSITION NEAR 32.3N 139.4E.

30SEP26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY

215 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED

NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-

SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 25W (SURIGAE) AS A

HIGHLY SHEARED, ELONGATED, AND POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION

CENTER THAT IS COMPLETELY INUNDATED WITH DRY AIR. THE 301222Z ASCAT

DATA CONFIRMS THE CENTER IS STRETCHED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL

POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS A RESULT OF

THE ASCAT IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT

CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH (35-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT

DRY AIR INDUCED BY JET INTERACTION, MARGINAL (26-27 C) SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES, AND POOR OUTFLOW. 25W IS ENTERING INTO THE BAROCLINC

ZONE AND IS EXHIBITING CHARACTERISTICS INDICATING IT HAS BEGUN

EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, INCLUDING MODERATE THERMAL ADVECTION AND

EMBEDDING UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. DETERMINISTIC MODEL

GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 25W WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL

TRANSITION NO LATER THAN TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS

SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL

BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL

PRESSURE AT 301200Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT

301200Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNINGS

(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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