WTPZ33 KNHC 100852 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number 53 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026 ...RACHEL HOLDING STEADY WHILE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 121.4W ABOUT 640 MI...1035 KM SSW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California, from San Jose de Las Palomas northward to the U.S./Mexico Border * East coast of Baja California, from Isla San Luis northward to Puerto Penasco A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern California coast from the U.S/Mexico Border northward to the San Diego/Orange County Line * East coast of Baja California, from Bahia De Los Angeles northward to Isla San Luis * Northwest Mexico from Puerto Libertad to Puerto Penasco A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in northern Baja California, northern Gulf of California, and Southern California should continue to monitor the progress of Rachel. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 121.4 West. Rachel is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast, accompanied by an additional increase in forward speed, is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to approach and move ashore near the U.S./Mexico border tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible through tonight, but rapid weakening is expected after Rachel moves inland over Baja California and the southwestern United States on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach portions of northern Baja California within the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning later today and continuing into Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are also possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in extreme Southern California, eastern Baja California, and portions of northwest Mexico beginning tonight or early Sunday. Strong gusty winds associated with the system are expected to spread over interior portions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of higher terrain, later today through early next week. RAINFALL: Rachel will bring 1 to 3 inches of rain to portions of Baja California this weekend. Rachel and its associated moisture will also bring rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with maximum amounts locally up to 5 inches in portions of the Southwest United States this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and potential for significant flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ero. SURF: Waves generated by Rachel will continue to build along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja California today. These waves, combined with an incoming long-period southerly swell, will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Coastal flooding and erosion are expected to worsen tonight into Sunday morning as the highest waves coincide with the high tides and water levels that are already running well above predicted levels. Moderate to major coastal flooding is expected, with hazardous coastal conditions continuing into early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM PDT. Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Gibbs