WTPZ35 KNHC 150231 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Simon Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 800 PM MST Wed Oct 14 2026 ...COMPACT SIMON WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 108.6W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Baja California Sur should continue to monitor Simon. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Simon was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 108.6 West. Simon is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). The storm is likely to move slowly and erratically through Thursday night. A motion toward the north or northwest is forecast to begin by Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through early Thursday, followed by gradual weakening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Through early Saturday, Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches over portions of the state of Baja California Sur. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf. SURF: Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi