WWSO21 ABRF 140640

IDQ20015
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

SATELLITE ANALYSIS BULLETIN
Issued at 0640 UTC on 14 NOVEMBER 2026
Tropical Low TD02F

140600 UTC

Located near 9.0S 158.7W

Analysis based on: ASCAT-C pass from 1936 UTC 13/11

Latitude Detection Sum: 9

Longitude Detection Sum: 21

Dvorak analysis: T2.0/2.0/D0/5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS

TD02F is a broad circulation in a generally favourable environment, but may
take some time to develop given a tilted vertical structure and a lack of
low-level forcing. The surface circulation is elongated, and displaced about
90nm west of the mid-level circulation.  

Dvorak analysis: A curved band pattern was analysed, with about 0.3-0.4 degrees
of curvature in the convective band to the north of the centre. The edge of the
deepest convection is displaced about 1 degree east of the low level centre,
but a shear pattern is not a suitable scene to use given the low environmental
wind shear. DT is 2.0 based on the curved band, and MET is also 2.0 based on a
D- over the past 24 hours. FT/CI is 2.0. Intensity is 30 knots based on an
earlier ASCAT-C pass showing a broad area of 25-30 knot winds south of the
centre. 

TD02F is expected to develop in a favourable environment, however it may be
slow initially as the system takes time to develop a well-defined vertical
structure. Motion is likely to be towards the west under the steering influence
of a mid-level ridge, however motion becomes more uncertain from the middle of
the weak as an approaching trough erodes the ridge. 

The next bulletin will be available by 150630 UTC.